Early Morning 11-7-2007. Well, without the write-ins fully counted, it appears that for the first time in recent history (and maybe in living memory), the majority commissioners will be Democrats. As of the most recent update, 11:29am from the Susquehanna County website with 100% of the precincts reporting, the results are this so far:
Michael Giangreco, Esq. (Republican) - 3,967 votes or 22.05%
MaryAnn Warren (Democrat, Incumbent) - 3,169 votes or 17.61%
Leon Allen (Democrat) - 3,165 votes or 17.59%
Jeffrey Loomis (Republican, Incumbent) - 3,093 votes or 17.19%
Thomas Jurista (Independent) - 1,307 votes or 7.26%
Write-ins - 3,290 votes or 18.29%
As you can see, with the exception of Attorney Giangrieco, who appears to have easily captured the most votes, there are only 76 votes which separate the second, third and fourth place hopefuls. With only 4 votes separating second and third place, it is anyone’s race. The write-ins, which total more than Warren, Allen, Loomis and Jurista votes probably in the end will be split primarily between Roberta Kelly (Republican, Incumbent) and Fred Baker (Republican). Unless one of these two candidates gets the vast majority of the write-ins, their campaigns appear to have failed in more ways than one. How much is the “majority of write-ins”? Using the current totals, a write-in candidate would have to get at least 3,166 votes or approximately 96.24% (of the total write-in vote) just to stay alive in 3rd place. Then there is the matter of the absentee vote. This is generally small, but with the second, third and fourth place so close, it’s anyone’s guess where it will all fall out.
Look for recounts and possibly court challenges to these results, which by no means will be final in all probability for some time.
Also, look for a major head hunt in the Republican party. Losing control of the commissioners’ office will surely raise some eyebrows of the faithful, both here and away. Maybe this will do the county some good. Maybe the powers in Harrisburg and Washington will see Susquehanna County as having broken away from the famous Northern Tier “T” where one politician observed that the only thing there is rocks, rattlesnakes and Republicans. This could actually be a good thing, at least in the short term. Maybe we can finally get some cooperation with grants, etc.
As one Democrat noted yesterday, the Republican vote is so fragmented, there was a real possibility for two democrats to be elected.
On the other side, there were Republicans who were so sure of themselves that they thought there was a real possibility of three Republican commissioners. When the egos in the GOP come back to reality, maybe these boys and girls will finally decide to play nicely together. Maybe then they will see that 4 candidates who are declared Republicans, 2 write-ins and 2 endorsed will only split the vote, not strengthen it. Let’s face it, there are just not that many Republican votes to go around.
Now, it is a wait and see game.
I suspect the most surprised of all the commissioner candidates on the morning after the election was Giangrieco. Granted, there are votes yet to be counted and the close commissioners’ race may yet fall to the Republicans, but if it doesn’t consider this ultimate irony: the top overall vote getter may end up being only a minority commissioner! Thus the argument could be made that it’s disadvantageous for the Republicans to have an overly strong candidate (in terms of primary vote counts) along with a weaker one, since the former garners so many November votes he dramatically dilutes the second Republican nominee’s support to the point that the minority party has a good chance at an upset. Clearly, the local Republican Party is going to have to rethink its position as perennial automatic winner and actually use some political strategy.
And if that weren’t enough of a surprise, consider this: since it’s traditional for the top vote winner amongst the majority party to be selected as the Chairman/woman of the Board of Commissioners, Mr. Giangrieco could end up being subordinate to one of the very incumbents he vowed to oust. In that event he might well live up to his nickname as “The Incredible Sulk”! It promises to be an interesting January, that of 2008. Fight nice, boys and girls.
Finally, congratulations to Leon Allen, if indeed he is one of our new commissioners. A good common sense campaign run with dignity - imagine that! But beware, Leon, of being roped into any behind the scene alliances with those who may try to split the first Democratic majority before it’s even been sworn in! Stranger things have happened.